A new report from the Singapore Institute of International Affairs (SIIA) indicates that the likelihood of transboundary haze affecting Singapore and its neighboring regions in 2024 is low. This optimistic outlook is attributed to anticipated wetter weather patterns due to the potential return of the La Niña phenomenon, coupled with a diminished risk of fires linked to plantation expansion in Indonesia.

The report, released on July 8, 2024, assigns a green or low-risk rating for haze, marking only the second instance in its six-year history. The previous green rating was awarded in 2021 during a prolonged La Niña phase. The return of La Niña later in 2024 is expected to provide a respite from unhealthy air quality, especially during the critical fire risk months of August, September, and October.

The El Niño phenomenon, which contributed to a less severe haze episode in 2023, diminished around mid-2024. The SIIA notes that the rainfall during the critical months is likely to be average or potentially above average if La Niña materializes. The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicts a 65% chance of La Niña developing between July and September, with an 85% likelihood from November onwards.

The report highlights that haze in Southeast Asia primarily stems from the burning of peat and other vegetation in Indonesia, often associated with land-clearing for agriculture. However, market trends and fire prevention strategies indicate a relatively low risk of haze from plantation expansion in the near future.

SIIA Chairman Simon Tay acknowledged the successful fire prevention measures implemented by the Indonesian government, organizations, and local communities, which significantly reduced smoke and fires despite severe drought conditions in 2023. In contrast to previous severe haze years, such as 2015 and 2019, the 2023 dry season experienced fewer fires.

Although Singapore had a brief haze episode in October 2023, when the Pollutant Standards Index (PSI) reached unhealthy levels, this situation was considerably less severe than the 2015 crisis. Looking ahead, the report notes that haze risk will largely depend on the governance and policies of Indonesia’s President-elect Prabowo Subianto, who is expected to prioritize economic growth and food security while maintaining environmental commitments.

The report emphasizes the importance of enhancing productivity and innovation within existing agricultural sectors rather than expanding land use, particularly in fire-prone areas. Furthermore, new advancements, such as a genomic testing laboratory for better oil palm seeds, aim to improve yields among smallholder farmers, who constitute a significant portion of Indonesia’s palm oil production.

However, the report also cautions that climate change could intensify drought conditions in the region, potentially increasing fire and haze risks in the future. The cyclical nature of El Niño and related weather patterns suggests that another high-risk period may emerge around 2027.