Centrist leader faces uphill battle to navigate France’s legislative challenges

French President Emmanuel Macron has appointed François Bayrou as his fourth prime minister in 2024, aiming to guide France through its second major political crisis within six months. Bayrou, a veteran centrist and close ally of Macron, will focus on passing emergency legislation to maintain the 2024 budget while preparing for an even more contentious 2025 budget battle.

At 73, Bayrou brings decades of political experience but faces considerable challenges. His task is made more difficult by a fragmented and divided Parliament, which has already led to political instability. His connection to Macron’s unpopularity may further limit his ability to maintain legislative support.

The far-right National Rally (RN), led by Jordan Bardella and Marine Le Pen, has refrained from immediate calls for no-confidence motions but has signalled that Bayrou must address opposition concerns, particularly regarding fiscal policies. Meanwhile, the far-left France Unbowed and the Greens are threatening to challenge Bayrou if their demands around taxation and pensions are ignored.

Bayrou’s immediate priority will be ensuring legislative stability through mid-2024 and preventing no-confidence votes until at least July, when parliamentary elections could be held. His first major legislative test will come in 2025 when lawmakers attempt to pass a budget designed to reduce borrowing, amid concerns about France’s 6 per cent deficit.

Bayrou, who founded the Democratic Movement party and has been part of Macron’s governing coalition since 2017, brings a mix of rural leadership experience and centrist appeal. Despite serving as justice minister in 2017, he had to resign briefly over an investigation into his party’s use of parliamentary assistants. Though cleared of wrongdoing in 2024, Bayrou’s tenure promises to test his political endurance amid the complexities of French governance.

The economic pressure and legislative gridlock pose a challenge as borrowing costs in France continue to climb. Bayrou will now attempt to steer the country through these uncertainties while managing a precarious coalition in the National Assembly. His leadership will be critical as France faces growing economic and political pressures in 2025.