The challenge for Thailand is maintaining export momentum despite potential US trade policies.

Thailand is on track to achieve a historic export milestone, with projections estimating exports will reach nearly US$300 billion by the end of 2024. While this surge highlights the country’s strong trade performance, it also comes with its own set of challenges, particularly in light of rising protectionist tendencies in the United States.

The robust growth in exports can be partly attributed to foreign importers’ preemptive actions in anticipation of US President-elect Donald Trump’s anticipated tariff policies. As Western importers feared possible tariff increases under the new US administration, many began stockpiling goods from Thailand, driving up export numbers significantly since July 2024.

However, experts caution that this surge could prove to be temporary, driven by stockpiling rather than sustained demand. Kirida Bhaopichitr, research director at the Thailand Development Research Institute, remarked that the exceptional growth in exports was partly due to fears of future tariff hikes, with businesses rushing to place larger orders in anticipation of the US government’s new policies.

As the US looks to address its trade imbalances, countries with large export surpluses, such as Thailand, may face increased scrutiny. The key challenge for Thailand will be sustaining its export momentum in the long term, especially if US trade policies shift to impose higher tariffs on countries with significant trade surpluses.